Why Certain Types of Elections Favor Extreme Candidates
We’re living in a polarized period of American history. Much of the divide in American society can be attributed to the rise of populism, particularly from both the left and the right. This divide often plays out in the ballot box, where fringe candidates from either side have taken advantage of the election system to become viable contenders in their respective races. But what makes elections more likely to favor more extreme candidates? While there is no single formula for electoral success, there are a number of factors that can tip the scales towards extreme candidates.
Primary vs General Elections
One of the major differences between primary and general elections is the level of engagement. In a primary, a greater number of voters turn out, as it involves actively choosing the candidate that will eventually represent each party in the general election. As the primary process tends to involve a smaller pool of voters, there is the potential for a smaller but more active base to sway an election.
This is also known as the “Formula for Success” in primaries. This formula states that, in order to win a primary, a candidate must mobilize and energize their base while making inroads into the opposition’s base. In some cases, this “Formula for Success” favors more extreme candidates over more moderate ones. For example, if a more extreme conservative candidate can energize their base and make minimal inroads into the moderate filter of the conservative party, they can easily win the primary. The same can be said for candidates on the liberal side.
Open Primaries & The Perceived Advantage for Extremists
An open primary is a type of election where any registered voter in the state can participate, regardless of their political affiliation. While open primaries are popular in many states, they are often viewed as being advantageous for more extreme candidates. This is because, in closed primaries, only people registered with the same party as the candidate can vote, while in an open primary, all registered voters can participate.
Closed primaries favor more moderate candidates, as they give an advantage to candidates who can gain support from within their respective parties. However, in open primaries, candidates of all political persuasions are able to reach out to a broader and more diverse pool of voters, which can potentially swing the race towards more extreme candidates.
The Modern Political Landscape
The current political landscape is more divided than ever before, with both Republican and Democratic parties more ideologically distinct from one another than they have been in past decades. This means that extreme candidates, who may have once been considered out of the mainstream, can now find an audience within the party itself, giving them an edge over more moderate candidates.
In addition, certain states are increasingly becoming one-party strongholds, meaning that the election, in effect, is decided during the primary. This allows extreme candidates who can galvanize their base to come out on top in the primary. In these situations, the general election is generally viewed as a formality, further illustrating the advantage extreme candidates have in certain electoral conditions.
The Influence of Dark Money & Super PACs
In recent years, the influence of dark money and Super PACs on the political landscape has become increasingly pronounced. A Super PAC, often funded by groups connected to various outside organizations, is a political action committee that has the ability to spend unlimited amounts of money in support of a specific political individual or party.
In terms of elections, Super PACs have proven to be a particularly effective force for more extreme candidates, as they have been able to pour large sums of money into supporting their campaigns. This influx of extra money can be used to create advertisements that portray the candidate in a more favorable light, as well as rally potential supporters behind the candidate’s message.
The truth is that there is no right or wrong answer when it comes to why certain types of elections favor extreme candidates. What’s clear is that a combination of several factors, including open primaries, the political landscape, and the influence of dark money and Super PACs, can give an advantage to more extreme candidates. Ultimately, it depends on how well they can mobilize their base and reach out to a potential new pool of voters, giving them the edge they need to win the election.
